Presented by Mark Lund, The Investor Coach.

Quote of the week. “Avoid having your ego so close to your position that when your position falls, your ego goes with it.”– Gen. Colin Powell

Fed bumps discount rate up to 0.75%. The exit strategy had to get rolling at some point, yet the Federal Reserve’s Thursday decision to raise the federal funds discount rate came sooner than many analysts expected. Yet the move did not prompt the big sell off some traders had predicted. Stocks posted tiny gains Friday after new CPI data was released.¹

Inflation remains tame. Core CPI fell by 0.1% in January, in the first monthly decline since 1982. Overall CPI rose 0.2% for the fifth straight month. From January 2009 to January 2010, CPI rose 2.6% with core CPI up 1.6%.²

PPI soars. Producer prices, on the other hand, rose 1.4% for January, spiked by a double-digit increase in costs of gasoline and heating oil. Core PPI advanced by 0.3% last month.³

Good news on housing & factory output. The Commerce Department had housing starts up 2.8% in January. Industrial production rose by 1.0% last month, powered by a gain of almost 5% in the auto industry.⁴

Great days for oil, gold & copper. Oil futures jumped 7.66% last week, putting prices at $79.81 on the NYMEX at Friday’s close. Gold settled at $1,121.30 after a 2.92% weekly advance. Copper trumped that with a 9.03% weekly gain, its best week since last July; copper prices settled at $3.36 per pound Friday.⁵

More big gains on Wall Street. Across four market days, the S&P 500 rose 3.13% to 1,109.17, the NASDAQ gained 2.76% to 2,243.87, and the Dow rose 3.00% to close at 10,402.35 on Friday.¹

(Source: CNBC.com, CNNMoney.com, ustreas.gov, bls.gov, 2/19/10)^1,6,7,8
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be
invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.

Riddle of the week. In 15 minutes, a dress will dry on a clothes wire. How long would it take you to dry five dresses?

Contact my office or see next week’s Update for the answer.

Last week’s riddle: A supermarket sign says you can buy energy bars at $12 a dozen. At that price, how much would it cost you to buy 100 energy bars?

Last week’s riddle answer: $100. At $12 per dozen, the unit price comes to $1 per bar.

Citations.
1 cnbc.com/id/35482890 [2/19/10]
2 marketwatch.com/story/core-inflation-drops-on-falling-housing-costs-2010-02-19 [2/19/10]
3 marketwatch.com/story/producer-prices-soar-14-on-energy-costs-2010-02-18 [2/18/10]
4 google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gNiyJ905Ho0Ur96V2TQhsBX19lGwD9DU53SG1 [2/17/10]
5 blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2010/02/19/data-points-energy-metals-226/ [2/19/10]
6 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=2%2F19%2F09&mode=add&symb=DJIA [2/19/10]
6 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=2%2F18%2F05&mode=add&symb=DJIA [2/19/10]
6 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=2%2F18%2F00&mode=add&symb=DJIA [2/19/10]
6 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=2%2F19%2F09&mode=add&symb=COMP [2/19/10]
6 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=2%2F18%2F05&mode=add&symb=COMP [2/19/10]
6 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=2%2F18%2F00&mode=add&symb=COMP [2/19/10]
6 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=2%2F19%2F09&mode=add&symb=SPX [2/19/10]
6 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=2%2F18%2F05&mode=add&symb=SPX [2/19/10]
6 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=2%2F18%2F00&mode=add&symb=SPX [2/19/10]
7 ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield.shtml [2/19/10]
7 ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield_historical.shtml [2/19/10]
8 treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2000/ofm11200.pdf [1/12/00]

These views are those of Peter Montoya Inc., and not the presenting Representative or the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, and should not be construed as investment advice. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx^®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If other expert assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. Please consult your Financial Advisor for further information. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards.

Presented by Mark Lund, The Investor Coach.

Quote of the week. “Live out of your imagination, not your history.”– Dr. Stephen Covey

Retail sales increase. Friday, the Census Bureau estimated retail sales up 0.5% for January, with a 4.7% year-over-year gain from January 2009. The half-percent gain topped the +0.3% forecast of economists polled by Briefing.com.^1,2

How are things off the sales floor? According to the Commerce Department, wholesale inventories shrank by 0.8% in December. Factory inventories were reduced by 0.1%, and retail stockpiles stayed flat (so to speak). U.S. companies had 1.26 months supply of goods on hand, the lowest figure since June 2008. You can hear factories humming.³

Consumer sentiment declines a bit. February’s preliminary Reuters/University of Michigan index of sentiment came in at 73.7. Late last month, the index was at 74.4. On the other hand, it was down at 56.3 one year ago. The gauge of current economic conditions hit 84.1, the highest mark in 23 months.⁴

A quick check on gold, copper & oil. They all advanced last week. Gold gained $37.30 over five days to close Friday at $1,089.50 an ounce (a 3.54% weekly gain). Copper rose 7.88% across its best week since July. Crude oil futures finished at $74.13 per barrel on the NYMEX Friday after a 4.13% weekly gain.⁵

NASDAQ gains 2%. That index outperformed the DJIA and S&P 500, rising 1.98% across a choppy yet winning week for all three major U.S. indices. The NASDAQ closed Friday at 2,183.53. The S&P 500 and DJIA both ascended 0.87% last week to finish respectively at 1,075.51 and 10,099.14 Friday. The U.S. stock markets will be closed February 15 for the Presidents’ Day holiday.⁶

(Source: CNBC.com, CNNMoney.com, ustreas.gov, bls.gov, 2/12/10)^6,7,8,9
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be
invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.

Riddle of the week. A supermarket sign says you can buy energy bars at $12 a dozen. At that price, how much would it cost you to buy 100 energy bars?

Contact my office or see next week’s Update for the answer.

Last week’s riddle: A family has a mother, father and four daughters. Each daughter has one brother. How many people are in the family?

Last week’s riddle answer: Seven people. Each of the daughters have one brother, there is not one brother for each daughter.

Citations.
1 census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.html [2/12/10]
2 blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2010/02/12/january-retail-sales-beat-sp-futures-down/ [2/12/10]
3 businessweek.com/news/2010-02-12/inventories-at-u-s-companies-unexpectedly-fall-as-sales-rise.html [2/12/10]
4 reuters.com/article/idUSTRE61B2XI20100212 [2/12/10]
5 blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2010/02/12/data-points-energy-metals-222/? [2/12/10]
6 cnbc.com/id/35371644 [2/12/10]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=2%2F12%2F09&mode=add&symb=DJIA [2/12/10]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=2%2F11%2F05&mode=add&symb=DJIA [2/12/10]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=2%2F11%2F00&mode=add&symb=DJIA [2/12/10]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=2%2F12%2F09&mode=add&symb=COMP [2/12/10]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=2%2F11%2F05&mode=add&symb=COMP [2/12/10]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=2%2F11%2F00&mode=add&symb=COMP [2/12/10]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=2%2F12%2F09&mode=add&symb=SPX [2/12/10]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=2%2F11%2F05&mode=add&symb=SPX [2/12/10]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=2%2F11%2F00&mode=add&symb=SPX [2/12/10]
8 ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield.shtml [2/12/10]
8 ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield_historical.shtml [2/12/10]
9 treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2000/ofm11200.pdf [1/12/00]

These views are those of Peter Montoya Inc., and not the presenting Representative or the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, and should not be construed as investment advice. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx^®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If other expert assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. Please consult your Financial Advisor for further information. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards.

Presented by Mark Lund, The Investor Coach.

Quote of the week. “Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.”– Leonardo da Vinci

Jobless rate falls to 9.7%. The January statistic from the Labor Department was encouraging – a 0.3% drop from December. Bizarrely, there was no job growth even with that sizable decline – payrolls slimmed by about 20,000 positions last month. Revised federal figures showed a gain of 64,000 jobs for November and a loss of 150,000 in December.¹

ISM index hits 5½-year high. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index rose to 58.4 in January, a peak unseen since August 2004. Economists surveyed by Reuters thought it would come in at 55.5. As for ISM’s service sector gauge, it read 50.5 for January, showing growth.^2,3

Spending, wages & savings rate rise. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said that consumer spending went up 0.2% in December. Wages rose 0.4% (the sixth straight monthly increase) and the personal savings rate went north to 4.8%.⁴

Factory orders up 1.0%. So indicates December data from the Commerce Department. This was the eighth monthly gain in the last nine. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast an 0.5% adavance.⁵

Wild week takes stocks a bit lower. After two triple-digit rallies and a major Thursday selloff triggered by sovereign debt concerns, the Dow pulled out of a descent and pulled off a 10-point gain on Friday, ending the week above 10,000. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 1,066.19, and was down 0.79% for the week. The NASDAQ wrapped up Friday at 2,141.12, down 0.29% last week. The Dow’s weekly loss was 0.55%, leaving it at 10,012.23.⁶

(Source: CNBC.com, CNNMoney.com, ustreas.gov, bls.gov, 2/5/10)^6,7,8,9
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be
invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.

Riddle of the week. A family has a mother, father and four daughters. Each daughter has one brother. How many people are in the family?

Contact my office or see next week’s Update for the answer.

Last week’s riddle: A plastic bottle filled with cola weighs one liter. What do you need to add to it to make it weigh less than two ounces?

Last week’s riddle answer: If you add a hole to the bottle, the cola will drain out and the liter bottle will weigh less than two ounces. (Actually, a liter is a measure of volume, not weight – but for the purposes of this riddle it is neither here nor there.)

Citations.
1 kansascity.com/444/story/1729270.html [2/5/10]
2 abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=9717254 [2/1/10]
3 marketwatch.com/story/us-jan-ism-services-index-rebounds-to-505-2010-02-03?reflink=MW_news_stmp [2/3/10]
4 latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2010/02/personal-income-spending-climb.html [2/1/10]
5 businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9DLECSO0.htm [2/4/10]
6 cnbc.com/id/35259652 [2/5/10]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=2%2F5%2F09&mode=add&symb=DJIA [2/5/10]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=2%2F4%2F05&mode=add&symb=DJIA [2/5/10]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=2%2F4%2F00&mode=add&symb=DJIA [2/5/10]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=2%2F5%2F09&mode=add&symb=COMP [2/5/10]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=2%2F4%2F05&mode=add&symb=COMP [2/5/10]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=2%2F4%2F00&mode=add&symb=COMP [2/5/10]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=2%2F5%2F09&mode=add&symb=SPX [2/5/10]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=2%2F4%2F05&mode=add&symb=SPX [2/5/10]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=2%2F4%2F00&mode=add&symb=SPX [2/5/10]
8 ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield.shtml [2/5/10]
8 ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield_historical.shtml [2/5/10]
9 treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2000/ofm11200.pdf [1/12/00]

These views are those of Peter Montoya Inc., and not the presenting Representative or the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, and should not be construed as investment advice. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx^®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If other expert assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. Please consult your Financial Advisor for further information. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards.

Presented by Mark Lund, The Investor Coach.

Quote of the week. “Reputation is what other people know about you. Honor is what you know about yourself.”– Lois McMaster Bujold

4Q GDP: 5.7%: That is the preliminary reading from the Commerce Department, and that is the best reading since 3Q 2003. Economists pointed out that much of the increase reflected companies rebuilding their inventories rather than personal spending.¹

Consumers think positive. The final University of Michigan/Reuters consumer sentiment index for January improved 1.6 points to 74.4. Economists polled by Briefing.com felt it would come in at 73.0.²

New concerns about home sales. Both new and existing home sales retreated markedly in December with the threat of federal tax credits being pulled. Existing home sales fell by 16.7% in that month while new home sales slipped 7.6%. In annual terms, residential resales for 2009 were about 5% higher than 2008 totals. Just 373,000 new single-family homes were sold in 2009, the fewest since the government began tracking sales stats in 1963.^3,4

A $5K hiring rebate? Last week, President Obama pitched the idea of giving companies of all sizes a $5,000 credit to offset payroll taxes for each new worker, up to a $500,000 ceiling. Net new hires (increasing employee hours) and salary increases could also make companies eligible. A proposal to enact the plan is now in the Senate.⁵

Dollar hits highest level since August. The buck went on an intraday climb to 90.92 yen and the euro traded below $1.39. The new GDP report helped.⁶

So long to a subpar month. Stocks retreated in the last week of January, with the Dow ending the month at 10,067.33, the NASDAQ at 2,147.35 and the S&P 500 at 1,073.87.⁷

(Source: CNBC.com, CNNMoney.com, ustreas.gov, bls.gov, 1/29/10)^7,8,9,10
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be
invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.

Riddle of the week. A plastic bottle filled with cola weighs one liter. What do you need to add to it to make it weigh less than two ounces?

Contact my office or see next week’s Update for the answer.

Last week’s riddle: A glass of water has an ice cube in it. If the ice cube fully melts, will the water level increase, decrease or remain the same?

Last week’s riddle answer: The water level will stay the same as the ice cube just displaces its weight.

Citations.
1 pbs.org/newshour/rundown/2010/01/us-economy-expands-at-fastest-rate-in-six-years.html [1/29/10]
2 money.cnn.com/2010/01/29/markets/markets_newyork/ [1/29/10]
3 money.cnn.com/2010/01/27/real_estate/new_home_sales/ [1/27/10]
4 nytimes.com/2010/01/30/business/economy/30charts.html [1/29/10]
5 time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1957663,00.html?xid=rss-topstories [1/29/10]
6 cnbc.com/id/35136215/ [1/29/10]
7 cnbc.com/id/35017549 [1/29/10]
8 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=1%2F29%2F09&mode=add&symb=DJIA [1/29/10]
8 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=1%2F28%2F05&mode=add&symb=DJIA [1/29/10]
8 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=1%2F28%2F00&mode=add&symb=DJIA [1/29/10]
8 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=1%2F29%2F09&mode=add&symb=COMP [1/29/10]
8 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=1%2F28%2F05&mode=add&symb=COMP [1/29/10]
8 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=1%2F28%2F00&mode=add&symb=COMP [1/29/10]
8 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=1%2F29%2F09&mode=add&symb=SPX [1/29/10]
8 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=1%2F28%2F05&mode=add&symb=SPX [1/29/10]
8 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=1%2F28%2F00&mode=add&symb=SPX [1/29/10]
9 ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield.shtml [1/29/10]
9 ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield_historical.shtml [1/29/10]
10 treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2000/ofm11200.pdf [1/12/00]

These views are those of the author, and not the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, and should not be construed as investment advice. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx^®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If other expert assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. Please consult your Financial Advisor for further information. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards.